After the conclusion of another season, the two-time Champions League winners await yet again the arrival of a dependable goal-scorer. Succeeding the days of Diego Costa, notable strikers have come and gone, but none flourishing at Chelsea. And that led many to coin the phrase, 'the no.9 curse' when referring to the futile spells of the countless players that have tried their luck at Stamford Bridge.
After weeks and months of thorough investigation, the recruitment team of the Blues has decided to place their faith in the former Villarreal striker, Nicolas Jackson.
This article will perform a detailed study of the attributes that attracted Chelsea to the Senegalese forward and the tactical set-up that would be most suitable to him.
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Since Diego Costa's departure in 2017-18, Chelsea have splashed close to €260 million on strikers that yielded far from expected returns. Combining their statistical performance in the league, they total 77 goals in 359 games. For more context, that is a return of just one goal in five matches.
As a result, Chelsea have not been able to mount a title charge over the years.
When comparing the number of goals scored by the 'big six' clubs, the disparity between the Blues and the likes of Manchester City and Liverpool is agonizing.
While the entire Chelsea squad is undergoing restructuring, Mauricio Pochettino and the club recruitment team were formulating plans to solve the team's staleness in front of goal.
Nicolas Jackson seems to be one of their answers. But what will he bring to the team?
When analyzing the player profile generated by FBref, we can obtain valuable insights into his strengths and weaknesses.
(Nicolas Jackson's ranking in different metrics compared to positional peers in the Men's Big 5 Leagues, UCL, and UEL over the last 365 days based on the 1598 minutes played)
Beginning with Nicolas Jackson's goal-scoring output, the non-penalty goals data suggests that he is a capable finisher - illustrated by falling under the 94th percentile under this metric. He also impressively outscored his xG (expected goals) of 8 by recording 12 goals in La Liga. However, this has come over a purple patch of form towards the end of the campaign, where he netted 9 in 8 appearances.
With less than 1800 minutes played in the senior division of Spanish football over the past two seasons, there is inadequate evidence to advocate for his propensity to replicate the same in the future, especially in the Premier League, where he would deal with robust low blocks and tight spaces.
An encouraging sign for the supporters would be Jackson's aptness to participate during build-up phases, unlike their previous striker, Romelu Lukaku. When examining his match footage, Jackson constantly frees himself to become an outlet for ball progression while attempting progressive passes and carries on his own. All of which are corroborated by the numbers.
(Comparing Nicolas Jackson's ball progression data during the 2022-23 season for Villarreal against Romelu Lukaku's output for Chelsea in 2021-22)
However, one of the downsides to his game is the lack of dominance in the air. Despite being 6'1 tall, Jackson only wins 30.2% of his aerial duels compared to Lukaku, who won 52% at Chelsea. Considering the Blues rank 9th for crosses attempted per game in the Premier League with 18 - three short of Liverpool, which ranks 1st, this will be an area he will need to improve.
Based on the statistical profile of a footballer, FBref identifies similar players in playstyle based on the algorithms they run. Identifying well-known players akin to Nicolas Jackson's style will allow us to evaluate the tactical set-up that would suit him at Chelsea.
Marcus Rashford and Lautaro Martinez considerably differ in the tactical roles they fulfill under their respective managers. The former is deployed on the left wing to receive through balls into the left half-space and crosses in the penalty box to convert into goals. To the contrary, the Argentine is part of a two-man strike partnership with Edin Dzeko - assigned to drop deep to assist with build-up and combine with his partner to get into shooting positions.
Therefore, it shows us that one size does not fit all. The intricacies of Nicolas Jackson's strengths must be identified by the coaching team and exemplified by adopting the right tactical approach for him to flourish.
The qualities that make Nicolas Jackson stand out are his ability to hold up possession using his strength and frame, bring his teammates into play, and complete penetrating runs behind the opposition defenders.
To exemplify these attributes, Mauricio Pochettino will have to ensure that there are wide attackers and a creative midfielder behind the striker for Nicolas Jackson to combine with and progressive passers who would play line-breaking balls through the opposition's defensive structure - all of which Chelsea have.
Playing a 4-2-3-1 formation could achieve this with Christopher Nkunku as an attacking midfielder and the Mudryk-Madueke duo occupying the wings.
Nkunku and Jackson would complement each other's aptitudes quite well, as the two can seamlessly interchange positions during different phases of the match, with the pair capable of hold-up play and chance creation.
Both of these are evident when analyzing the proportion of touches for both players that were progressive passes and the share of the team's progressive passes received last season.
Having Mudryk and Madueke on the flanks will suit Jackson, who was familiar with a front-three attacking formation at Villarreal. The Senegalese striker's tendency to drop deep allowed the wingers to illuminate their dribbling prowess - which will complement Mudryk and Mudeke as both wingers prosper in one-on-one situations against defenders.
Moreover, Jackson's four assists in the league rank him in the 89th percentile for strikers with the most assists in Europe's top 5 Leagues.
(The two winger's percentile ranking in different metrics compared to positional peers in the Men's Big 5 Leagues, UCL, and UEL over the last 365 days based on the minutes played)
Chelsea had many routes to solve the striker problem in the market, with each proposition offering a different tactical profile.
Although the West Londoners were tempted like many others by the prospect of procuring a proven sharpshooter like Victor Osimhen, the Chelsea hierarchy was wise not to commit to an expensive bet.
Instead, they decided to show faith in a young candidate that could bloom with the right coaching. And with Mauricio Pochettino at the helm, that will not be a concern.
The striker's curse has followed many talented players that arrived at the Bridge over the years, who have withered for various reasons, mainly succumbing to the overwhelming pressure. Therefore, this makes it difficult for anyone to predict whether this transfer will be a successful signing, as innumerable and unforeseen factors can influence the outcome.
Nevertheless, the 2023-24 campaign indicates the dawn of a new era at Chelsea, with the extensive part of the squad revamped, including the uninspiring forward line.
The Senegalese forward will step into a newly structured team with young talents, hungry to grow, and a manager eager to remind the football world what he is all about.
If the club wants to engineer any success in the coming season, Nicolas Jackson will have to break the vehement striker's curse.
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