In the season gone by when Manchester City were crowned Champions of England for the third year in a row, Champions of Europe for the first time in the club's history, and FA Cup winners, Pep Guardiola often rotated players in most positions to keep them fresh and away from injuries.
The competitors nearby and far away have strengthened heavily, making it imperative for City to reinforce its roster.
And with the departure of Riyad Mahrez to Al Ahli of the Saudi Pro League, the right-wing division is light heading into the 2023-24 campaign.
This piece will explore different options Manchester City could choose to fill the void left by Mahrez.
Other articles that may interest you
Before evaluating the options Manchester City could pursue, we need an understanding of the attributes that make Riyad Mahrez unique.
The left-footed Algerian forward has played under Pep Guardiola as a classic winger - hugging the touchline to receive long diagonal switches that he controls with a graceful touch, taking on fullbacks, creating chances from the flanks, and cutting inside to take a shot.
(Riyad Mahrez percentile ranking in different metrics compared to positional peers in the Men's Big 5 Leagues, UCL, and UEL over the last 365 days based on the 2426 minutes played)
The statistical performance of the former City no.26 indicates that he contributes to the team's goals through creation rather than finishing, which is exhibited through below-average performances in shots attempted and expected non-penalty goals while excelling in expected assists and key passes.
The numbers also reflect the various ways Mahrez creates chances - his output in crosses into the penalty box and through balls is strong.
Mahrez has a low ranking in take-ons attempted due to the tendency to find a teammate with a pass rather than taking opposition defenders one-on-one.
On the other hand, Jack Grealish, playing on the left wing, is inclined to do the converse.
(The charts show that Riyad Mahrez favors breaking opposition lines through passes rather than dribbles, unlike Jack Grealish)
The options below constitute the best players the recruitment team could consider, depending on the risk appetite:
Reliance on youth - high risk
Like-for-like - medium risk (Recommended transfer)
Dream player - low risk
Option 1: Reliance on Youth - Michael Olise (21)
After a phenomenal season for Crystal Palace in his second year in the senior division, Michael Olise announced himself as one of the most exciting talents in Europe.
With 2 goals and 11 assists in the Premier League, Olise propelled Palace to an eleventh-placed finish, not achieved by the club since 2017-18.
Recording double digits in assists for a club that finished in the bottom half of the Premier League at his tender age is no mean feat. Only James Maddison of Leicester City, 25, came close with 9 assists for a team that finished below tenth.
(Michael Olise ranked joint-third highest for assists and the youngest player with more than 10 goal contributions in the Premier League last year)
Interestingly, Michael Olise mirrors many qualities that Riyad Mahrez oozes - maintaining the team's width on the right wing, being capable of cutting inside and out for shots and crosses, while also being efficient in the final third.
Many similarities arise when comparing the output of both players in various metrics.
In the shooting department (light orange), Olise does not match the produce of Mahrez as he takes fewer shot attempts. But this is because he plays for a team with much lower possession resulting in fewer attacking opportunities - explaining the Frenchman's scanty goal output of two.
The most resemblance of Olise's game to Mahrez is in the passing and chance creation numbers (orange), as the two almost match in output for most metrics.
The only attribute Olise is better at is dribbling (dark orange). Not only does he attempt more take-ons than the Algerian, but also successfully executes a higher percentage of them.
(Michael Olise and Riyad Mahrez's percentile ranking in different metrics compared to positional peers in the Men's Big 5 Leagues, UCL, and UEL over the last 365 days based on their minutes played)
Michael Olise is a suitable choice if Pep Guardiola wishes to mold a player to his liking, and this is possible due to the limited tactical information fed into the Frenchman's system. But it also constitutes a disadvantage as the youngster would need more time to adapt than an experienced player.
And so, he would not be a ready-made product but a work-in-progress. But one that could provide a nifty return on investment when he begins to shine.
Option 2: Like-for-like (Recommended transfer) - Raphinha (26)
For the recommended signing, we turn to a player who represents the closest and most affordable like-for-like Mahrez replacement in the market, Raphinha.
The recent La Liga champion offers a proposition that Manchester City could find very attractive as he ticks all boxes to become a valued asset on the right.
And that is demonstrated when comparing the Algerian winger's profile to the Brazilian.
Whether it be shooting, passing, or possession stats, Raphinha exudes all attributes that make Mahrez a precious resource.
Therefore, if Pep Guardiola wants the successor to have similar qualities to the predecessor, Raphinha would be the most sensible transfer.
(Riyad Mahrez and Raphina's percentile ranking in different metrics compared to positional peers in the Men's Big 5 Leagues, UCL, and UEL over the last 365 days based on their minutes played)
Raphinha impressively translated his reliability of creating the lion's share of the team's chances after completing a move from a Premier League relegation-battling team in the season before last to a Spanish league title-winning side the year after.
Manchester City would represent another step up due to their habit of competing for the championship in all competitions. However, the recent past indicates that it would not overwhelm the Brazilian.
Though City does not rely on any single player for chance creation, his data suggests he can take charge if necessary.
(Raphinha was responsible for 16.48% of Leeds United's chances in 2021-22, ranking first. A feat repeated at Barcelona in his debut season for the club.)
Having played with Robert Lewandowski in the past year, Raphinha would also not be alien to the demands of an elite striker, which Manchester City boast in their no.9, Erling Haaland.
The Norwegian striker relishes getting on the end of crosses, while Raphinha enjoys providing them. So, they seem to be a perfect match as they are in tandem with the other's strengths.
When analyzing Raphinha's pass map, we can spot his tendency to deliver crosses from the right flank, coinciding with the second graph below that highlights Haaland's propensity to take shots from the central and left half-space.
(Source: barcelonaanalysis.com)
(Erling Haaland's shot map for 2022-23)
(Source: understat.com)
Although Raphinha would be a safer bet compared to Michael Olise, there are always risks associated with any transfer, regardless of how suitable it may seem.
There will be concerns regarding Raphinha's ability to be more cautious in possession and adhere to Pep Guardiola's relatively strict tactical principles. Furthermore, the infinite possibilities of injuries, adaption period, and a host of influences make this transfer at least moderately risky.
Option 3: The Dream Signing - Bukayo Saka (21)
If Pep Guardiola had to write down a list of players he would like to have on the right wing without considering the cost or practicality of the deal, you should bet your house on Bukayo Saka being among the contenders for the first spot.
At the early age of twenty-one, Bukayo Saka established himself as one of the best wide forwards in Europe.
Last season, the English international was a quintessential component of the armory of Arsenal, racking up 14 goals and 11 assists.
If you scroll up to the chart representing the top goal contributors of the Premier League in 2022-23, you will locate Saka among the few who distinguish themselves from the pack as the elite.
The Ealing-born winger is a lethal weapon from the right - creating chances consistently while delivering efficient finishes.
When analyzing the players with the highest shot and goal-creating actions in the division, Saka is in company with world-class creators such as Kevin De Bruyne, Bruno Fernandes, and Mohamed Salah.
(A shot-creating action, according to FBref, is the two offensive actions that directly lead to a shot, such as passes and take-ons, whereas a goal-creating action is the two offensive actions that directly lead to a goal)
Moreover, given his young age, Bukayo Saka represents one of the few players destined to become world-class. If City does inherit such a talent, he would, most certainly, repay the club handsomely over the years, justifying a high asking price.
In the short term, this transfer is impossible, especially when Arsenal are flying high with momentum.
But down the road, who knows?
If the Arsenal trajectory collapses as fast as its rise, you might see Bukayo Saka in Manchester blue sooner than you think.
Honorable Mentions
There were multiple players under serious consideration for the recommended transfer spot. Apart from Raphinha, who made the cut, two other wingers were under immense scrutiny.
The first was an out-of-the-box option - Ousmane Dembele.
Dembele was immense to Barcelona's offensive produce in the final third in the few months he avoided injuries. However, his susceptibility to being found on the sidelines is unavoidably significant.
Even with a relatively cheap release clause of €50m, it is expensive for a player who struggles to record over 2000 minutes - an achievement he has not accomplished since 2016-17.
The second choice was Bayern Munich's Kingsley Coman.
Although he supplied consistent numbers across most metrics, Coman did not embody a Riyad Mahrez replacement. The Frenchman profiled closer to Jack Grealish, so a move for him could make City one-dimensional on the wings.
But Coman is still an intriguing possibility City could explore due to the flexibility he provides of being capable of playing on either flank.
Another common point of detail under deliberation for both players was that their integration into the team would result in a slight tweak in tactical approach since they profile differently from Mahrez - a problem not emerging with Raphinha.
A competitive season awaits the treble winners, but they appear short of soldiers to retain all their crowns.
They must reinforce their army this summer to ensure they defend their fortress, but at the time of writing, they have only introduced a Croatian midfielder.
Though the club has a hefty war treasure, spending it wisely will be of the utmost importance - a trait they have demonstrated over the years through clever and intelligent recruiting.
This summer is a pivotal moment for the club that conquered last season. But if they do not bring in the necessary reinforcement, they will be left regretful soon when a Trojan horse steals their crown from under their feet.
(Image credits: Martin Rickett/ PA Wire)
Comments