Introduction
On the night of December 10, two European heavyweights will face each other in a do-or-die quarter-final tie in Al Bayt Stadium. A plethora of high-quality talent will be on display for an iconic blockbuster match between two teams that are rich in history.
This young English side marches onto the fixture with a great deal of hope resting on their shoulders. Despite a narrow defeat to Italy in the 2020 edition of the Euros and a semi-final World Cup run in 2018, doubts surrounding Gareth Southgate and some players have not been alleviated.
The French, on the other hand, is a side intent on proving to their nation, and the rest of the world, that they are still the crème de la crème. After a disappointing round of 16 defeat to Switzerland in the Euros 2020, France will be keen on etching their name in the record books to be just the third side to lift back-to-back World Cup titles.
Tactical Outlook
Firstly looking at the defending World Cup champions' set-up, there are a few talking points.
The French lineup in a flexible 4-2-3-1 that changes to different structures when attacking and defending. Offensively, the left full-back (Theo Hernandez) takes up an aggressive attacking position, whereas the right full-back (Jules Kounde or Benjamin Pavard) plays a more conservative role.
The two wingers - likely Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele - stay high and wide. More interestingly, Griezmann shifts to the right half-space to combine with the right winger. And one of the defensive midfielders (Adrien Rabiot) is allowed to advance, while the other (Aurelien Tchouameni) holds the pivot role. Not to forget, the striker, Olivier Giroud, maintains a central position - to pin the opposition's back line.
All this is reflected by the pass network from the France VS Australia match produced by The Athletic.
The English have adopted a 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 that has seen more player rotation than their quarter-final opponents. In the last match against the AFCON champions, Gareth Southgate set up his troops in a standard 4-3-3.
Like the French, the left-back (Luke Shaw) is the more advanced full-back. Declan Rice holds the pivot role with two center midfielders - Jude Bellingham and most likely Jordan Henderson - on either side of him. Out of this, the youngster is allowed to be more adventurous.
And finally, the front three is made up of Harry Kane and two wingers that stay wide - Phil Foden, Bukayo Saka, Marcus Rashford, and Jack Grealish would fight for this spot with uncertainty around Raheem Sterling's availability.
Mbappe & Bellingham Shine Bright
The standout performers for both teams have undoubtedly been PSG superstar Kylian Mbappe and Borussia Dortmund's gem, Judge Bellingham. Though they operate in different areas of the field, they have been immense to their team's success.
Bellingham's versatility allows him to contribute to various aspects of England's game. Whether it be helping the team during the build-up phase, transitional play, making runs in behind the opposition to penetrate defensive lines, or arriving late at the box to take a shot, Jude does it all.
His touch map in the match against Iran is a perfect example.
Touches in the defensive third show his intent to facilitate the team's efforts to play out from the back. And the touches in the attacking third represent his involvement in creating and finishing chances.
(Defensive and offensives halves are on the left and right respectively)
No words are left to describe Kylian Mbappe's abilities, so I'll allow his numbers to do the talking.
(Data from StatsBomb via FBref)
He has led the way in goals scored this tournament (all of which are non-penalty goals), and Mbappe's quality of finishing seems to have reached a new level. The goals against Poland are good precedents - both shots were taken with minimal backlift, but they found the top corner with ease.
He will be one of the many threats Southgate will need to formulate a plan for. And if he does not find the right solution, Mbappe will make him pay.
Back 4 or Back 5 Gareth?
Heading into the tournament, the English fans expected Southgate to revert to a back five upon the conclusion of the group-stage matches. However, he did not impose that strategy against Senegal.
But that decision is understandable.
His side averaged 66.6% possession across all three games. So, it only made sense to cling to the same tactics for a match where they would likely dominate possession.
Nevertheless, Southgate may need to alter his plans when facing the quality of an outfit like France. A team that is dangerous when given space to make runs behind the backline with the pace of Ousmane Dembele and Kylian Mbappe.
Gareth Southgate is likely to make a safe bet by using a defensive five, but with the success of the back four, there is a lot for him to ponder.
(The quarter-final battle against France will be Gareth Southgate's biggest test so far)
How's it going to pan out then?
This will be one of the tougher games to predict - regarding the direction either manager will take.
Didier Deschamps may instruct his team to sit back to hit England on the counter through the wings. Or he may decide to dictate proceedings and set his team to be on the front foot to deny the English talent to have time on the ball.
On the other hand, Gareth Southgate could stick to his guns and follow the same game plan he has used so far. Or, revisit the old blueprint and use a back five.
The most probable scenario would be that the current champions dominate possession, with the Euros finalists willing to cede control over the ball to find space behind the French backline. So, France would need to be on their toes when England spring their counter through their attackers.
This World Cup has delivered many games that will go down as perpetual classics, but will this fixture live up to those expectations? Tune in on Saturday to find out.
Excellent post, good use of statistics. should have a small section at the bottom of your own article on prediction of the game play and the score!