Introduction
Currently sitting in third place, Antonio Conte's men have had a bold start to the Premier League campaign. However, they are criticized for not dominating most of their opponents. As a result, Spurs are not considered serious title challengers by many come the end of the season.
This article will look at Spurs' results and determine the possibility of sustaining their results by comparing them to the Inter Milan teams Conte has managed.
(Tottenham is unbeaten in the Premier League so far)
Comparative Analysis
On Fbref, expected goals for and against data are only available from the 2017/18 season. Therefore, this analysis will compare Spurs to the successful 2019/20 Inter Milan team that finished second, a point behind Juventus, and the 2020/21 Scudetto winning side. Both were managed by Antonio Conte.
Various aspects of Tottenham's present form can be recognized with data. We can examine the team's performance by comparing the xG (expected goals scored) and xGA (expected goals conceded). When looking at the trendline for both indicators, a higher xG value indicates that the team is creating more attacking opportunities and conceding fewer chances, which means the team is playing well. If it is the opposite, it shows that the players were poor.
This graph indicates an irregularity in consistency this season for Tottenham. The two metrics have moved with high volatility. Not only with the difference between the two measures but also the fluctuating convergence and divergence between the two. It tells us that in some matches Spurs can be dominant, but the others are close matches where the result could have swayed either way.
The analysis made above is reflected by their offensive and defensive showing as well. They have varyingly underperformed and overperformed game-by-game. There is no regularity with either graph.
Although their performances have not been up-to-the-mark, the results are more than satisfactory. Conte could find relief in the team's ability to generate positive results despite below-par displays. If the team can improve on this, they could become an even more difficult side to play against. Regardless, their ongoing form is unsustainable.
Nevertheless, it begs the question of any similarity in such tendencies of previous sides managed by Conte.
In the 2019/20 Serie A season, where Inter Milan finished with eighty-two points, they started the first nine games with dominance, mirrored by the wide gap between xG and xGA. However, inconsistency crept in the middle of the campaign, similar to what Tottenham is facing right now. But in the final third of the season, they regained their early form and ended the league campaign strongly.
These two charts are quite similar concerning the small margin between the expected metric and actual output. It indicates that Conte's teams are prone to inconsistency in overperformance of the expected goals measure. We should not expect his sides to produce similar graphs to teams coached by Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp.
The above observations apply to Inter Milan's Scudetto-winning 2020/21 team.
Similar to the previous season, Inter Milan has a period of inconsistency after which the tide changes. We can expect a corresponding change in Spurs' performances. Around the nine to eleven game mark, the momentum changed for Milan. The same could happen for the North London club soon.
Conclusion
Pundits are correct to determine that the present trajectory of Spurs' results cannot be maintained for long. Still, Conte's sides have proved time and time again that this will change. They have a nine to eleven games spell where they do not perform well. If they get through this tough patch and make it to the other side with a respectable number of points, it can be viewed as a minor success.
I expect a change in performances soon and put up a valiant title challenge this season. With his habitual early exit from the UCL, it can benefit them domestically.
Their playing style and performance displays have masked a shadow of doubt over the team. I expect them to march on and gather momentum as the season carries on.
The North is coming.
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