Introduction
After spending over £100 million this summer, Wolverhampton Wanderers find themselves 18th in the Premier League after gaining just six points from the opening eight games. The pressure on Bruno Lage crossed the tipping point, and he was sacked on the 2nd of October, as reported by David Ornstein on The Athletic.
A loss to West Ham last Saturday forced the board to pull the trigger on the manager's sacking. This write-up will analyze the team's performance, underpin their problems, and explain why Lage was bound to get fired.
(Bruno Large could not find any solutions against West Ham)
Unsolved Issues
The biggest problem the team is facing is the attack. Wolves are the fourth worst team in the league in terms of chances created (xG). They are only above Nottingham Forrest, Aston Villa, and Bournemouth. Wolves also rank last in goals scored with just three.
Out of their eight Premier League games, their xGA (expected goals conceded) has surpassed the xG (expected goals scored) on six occasions. It discloses that the team was more likely to cede goals than score in the majority of matches.
Some of the blame can be directed toward their lack of striker options. Wolverhampton's purchase of Sasa Kalajdzic was in vain after he injured himself against Southampton, and has been ruled out for the rest of the campaign. Raul Jimenez has not been the same after recovering from the gruesome head injury against Arsenal in 2020. Their late gamble on Diego Costa was a hail mary that could be fruitful, but he has not played a full ninety-minute match in the past twelve months.
(Diego Costa made his Premier League return last Saturday)
A few results could have been different if it weren't for poor finishing. The game against Fulham is a good example.
After winning the ball in midfield, Podence finds Neto in acres of space on the left. However, the slightly overhit pass forces Neto wider than what would have been ideal. The Fulham defenders rapidly recover and deny him any opportunity to cut inside. The shot is thereby taken from a narrow angle and hits the keeper.
In the same game, Fulham gets caught out on the transition. After a miscommunication between the goalkeeper and the defender, Neto is through on goal but takes a heavy touch and allows the opposition defender to clear the ball.
Their deficiency of not having a striker was apparent in a few games. Once more, against Fulham. Rayan Ait-Nouri receives a through ball on the left. He plays the perfect pass into the box but is missed by a Wolves attacker and skied high by another.
Another example was in the match against Tottenham. Ait-Nouri collects a cross-field pass and plays a one-two with Podence. He makes his way through Spurs' defensive line but hesitates to cross the ball early due to the absence of a striker in the six-yard box. Though Guedes (#17) is in the penalty box, he lacks the strikers' instinct to make a run towards the free space.
The Inevitable Decision
Although Lage has been unlucky with injuries and player mistakes, he was responsible for the team's lack of output.
Drawbacks have been put under the spotlight by Wolverhampton's start to the season but have been an underlying issue last year too. All be it the team finished 10th (in 2021/22), they ranked 19th in chance creation and were the fifth-worst team in chances conceded. They overachieved by an incredible margin which masked the hidden issues with this team.
It is astonishing that in the 2021/22 campaign, Wolves finished tenth after a consistent underperformance throughout the season.
Since the beginning of Lage's tenure as manager, Wolverhampton has conceded seventeen fewer goals than expected. This number was impossible to sustain. So far, they have conceded 9 from an xGA of 9.2. As the results caught up to their consistent overachievement, a fairer league position was exposed.
Conclusion
At face value, it may seem that Lage has not delivered after the expensive summer shopping spree. Though there is some truth to this, the data suggests that he has not got the team performing to the level required to remain competitive in a demanding league. Thus, the decision should not surprise many.
It remains to be seen who the next manager will be. Whoever it is, they have a challenging task at hand. The atmosphere at Molineux will be one of concern, distress, and uncertainty.
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